Paradigm 3

The Year in AI

Collected data from "Humans on AI", our biweekly newsletter.

Below, a whole-year dataset and an AI search over it.

Examples of what this data can tell you:

What unprecedented things happened this year?
  • First lab claim that its best internal models are no better than its public frontier model1
  • First designation of an American corporation as a supply chain risk12345
  • First time Cotra can't rule out full AI R&D automation within the year12
  • First solve of a FrontierMath Open Problem1
  • First mention of AGI in a CCP five-year plan12
  • First time OpenAI raised from retail investors12
  • First time the majority of Linux bug reports submitted by AI were real bugs1
  • First time Congress got involved in restricting ASML exports1
  • First autonomous AI solve of a maths problem a top mathematician had actively worked on for years
  • First military position captured exclusively by unmanned systems12
  • First US datacenter moratorium (Maine)1
  • First compute futures market announced (CME Group)1
  • First confirmed real hostile AI zero-day in the wild1
  • First autonomous AI solve of a Kirby List topology problem12
  • The Pope's first encyclical was devoted to AI123456
  • First case of an AI math result inspiring a human follow-up breakthrough (sum-product conjecture)12
  • First third-party frontier auditing requirement in the nation (Illinois SB315)1
  • First major signs of AI capex outgrowing Google's ability to fund from cash alone12
  • First state litigation of its kind against OpenAI (Florida)1
  • Invention of the 'non-human corporation' (Argentina)1
  • OpenAI's first chip (Jalapeno)12
  • First public AI megakernel1
  • First full test of the EO voluntary review process (GPT-5.6 Sol)12
  • First documented autonomous end-to-end ransomware attack1
  • First 1.8T-parameter model trained solely on Chinese chips1
What happened in Chinese AI this year?
  • 22 Feb 2026·Chinese model parity looks overstated12
  • 22 Feb 2026·Pentagon briefly lists Alibaba and Baidu as CCP military-linked1
  • 26 Feb 2026·Anthropic warns about massive Chinese distillation1
  • 06 Mar 2026·Qwen technical lead exits1
  • 10 Mar 2026·Alibaba agent exhibits dangerous behavior12345
  • 10 Mar 2026·Obviously, Chinese LLMs censor1
  • 13 Mar 2026·Chinese companies unable to meet demand12345678
  • 18 Mar 2026·Moonshot attention paper goes viral12
  • 27 Mar 2026·China bars Manus founders from leaving1
  • 27 Mar 2026·CCP plan mentions AGI12
  • 31 Mar 2026·China video models123456
  • 03 Apr 2026·China uses 140T tokens daily12
  • 07 Apr 2026·MATCH Act targets ASML servicing1
  • 07 Apr 2026·China regulates digital humans1
  • 11 Apr 2026·US leads China in compute
  • 11 Apr 2026·China robot ranking corrected1
  • 11 Apr 2026·Hacker claims China supercomputer breach1
  • 15 Apr 2026·NVIDIA restarts H200 production123
  • 20 Apr 2026·Signal verification moonshot launches1
  • 24 Apr 2026·Kimi 2.6 launches1234
  • 24 Apr 2026·White House backs anti-distillation campaign1
  • 24 Apr 2026·Hawley and Toner challenge China-race logic1
  • 24 Apr 2026·Foreign Affairs floats AI agreement1
  • 24 Apr 2026·DeepSeek v41234567891011121314151617181920
  • 28 Apr 2026·🔦 China and AI1234567
  • 01 May 2026·China obtained 660k H100-equivalent chips1234
  • 05 May 2026·CAISI finds widening US-China model gap12
  • 05 May 2026·Congress probes Chinese model use12
  • 08 May 2026·White House considers bilateral AI talks1
  • 12 May 2026·Experts forecast Chinese lithography progress1
  • 15 May 2026·Culper posts Nvidia bear case1
  • 15 May 2026·US names approved H200 buyers1
  • 15 May 2026·Xi-Trump agenda includes AI1234567
  • 19 May 2026·Bessent-China AI talks produce little1
  • 19 May 2026·Moonshot attacks Anthropic and defends open-source1
  • 19 May 2026·Netherlands objects to ASML export language12
  • 26 May 2026·Huawei targets 1.4nm GPU nodes1
  • 26 May 2026·Tencent veteran critiques Chinese LLMs1
  • 26 May 2026·PLA outlines AGI warfare view1
  • 29 May 2026·China restricts top AI talent12
  • 02 Jun 2026·BIS updates its policy on chip export123
  • 05 Jun 2026·CAIS argues AI geopolitics favors offense1
  • 19 Jun 2026·🔦 GLM-5.2 deep dive12345678910
  • 19 Jun 2026·We asked GLM-5.2 to score itself123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627
  • 23 Jun 2026·Open cyber models may pose greater risk1
  • 26 Jun 2026·Anthropic accuses Alibaba of distillation1
  • 30 Jun 2026·WSJ overhypes GLM-5.2 cyber capability1
  • 03 Jul 2026·Bridgewater fine-tunes Qwen successfully1
  • 03 Jul 2026·GLM-5.2 trails Gemini and Qwen1
  • 03 Jul 2026·Anthropic detects Chinese Claude Code access1
  • 08 Jul 2026·NVIDIA warns China controls help Huawei12
  • 08 Jul 2026·Chinese experts doubt frontier catchup1
  • 08 Jul 2026·China weighs restricting model exports123
  • 10 Jul 2026·Chinese lab trains 1.8T model1
  • 10 Jul 2026·Minimax raises $2B1
  • 14 Jul 2026·Chinese distillation impact disputed12
  • 14 Jul 2026·Zhipu CEO pushes safety and open AGI1
  • 14 Jul 2026·Politics may kill frontier open models12
  • 17 Jul 2026·Chinese labs crank up sparsity to cope
  • 17 Jul 2026·Moonshot releases Kimi K3
  • 17 Jul 2026·GLM-5.2 narrows cyber gap1
  • 17 Jul 2026·Xi calls for human-controlled AI12
  • 17 Jul 2026·🔦 Kimi K3123456789
Is RSI happening?
  • 22 Feb 2026·METR puts Opus 4.6 at 14.5-hour horizon1
  • 22 Feb 2026·OpenAI models help physicists finish paper1
  • 26 Feb 2026·Anthropic says internal models lag Opus1
  • 02 Mar 2026·Deep critique of Epoch and Dario estimates12
  • 06 Mar 2026·AI speeds formal math 8x1
  • 06 Mar 2026·Ajeya Cotra raises automation odds12
  • 06 Mar 2026·GovAI measures AI R&D automation1
  • 10 Mar 2026·Karpathy autoresearch beats nanochat record12
  • 13 Mar 2026·AlphaEvolve improves Ramsey bounds12
  • 18 Mar 2026·Autoresearch enters interpretability work1
  • 18 Mar 2026·Autoresearch steers evolutionary search1
  • 18 Mar 2026·David Pfau comments on AI math1
  • 23 Mar 2026·Autoresearch overfits without constraints12
  • 23 Mar 2026·Frontier models lag human mathematicians12
  • 23 Mar 2026·FrontierMath open problem confirmed solved1
  • 23 Mar 2026·Lean mathematicians dissent on autoformalisation12
  • 03 Apr 2026·AI2027 timelines move 1.5 years earlier12
  • 03 Apr 2026·Epoch and METR prepare HCAST replacement
  • 03 Apr 2026·Semianalysis explains parameter-count stagnation1
  • 07 Apr 2026·AIs excel at software replication
  • 07 Apr 2026·Cunningham models AI R&D economics1
  • 07 Apr 2026·ESNI progress accelerates AI R&D
  • 07 Apr 2026·Greenblatt timelines remain moderate123
  • 07 Apr 2026·Greenblatt warns about automation progress1
  • 15 Apr 2026·AI solves active math problem
  • 20 Apr 2026·Researchers forecast ASARA progress1
  • 28 Apr 2026·AI coding agents given only raw method1
  • 28 Apr 2026·Litt describes AI-assisted math work1
  • 05 May 2026·AI economic growth model released1
  • 05 May 2026·Jack Clark puts 60% on no-human1
  • 08 May 2026·Harder MirrorCode version released123
  • 08 May 2026·Manual checks slow METR estimates1
  • 12 May 2026·AlphaEvolve saves Google compute1
  • 12 May 2026·MLS-Bench tests autoresearch generalization1
  • 12 May 2026·Mythos rewrites 960k lines of production code12
  • 12 May 2026·RSI scenarios get serious scrutiny123
  • 15 May 2026·AISI warns against automated alignment1
  • 15 May 2026·Coding agents sharpen RSI debate1
  • 15 May 2026·METR surveys experts? AI use12
  • 22 May 2026·First really major AI mathematical result1234
  • 22 May 2026·InferenceBench measures AI R&D ability1
  • 26 May 2026·The post-Erdős era begins12345
  • 29 May 2026·Automated R&D may still slow1
  • 05 Jun 2026·Anthropic release internal evidence of RSI in progress1
  • 19 Jun 2026·DeepMind maps paths from AGI to ASI1
  • 23 Jun 2026·Recursive AI beats engineering baselines1
  • 26 Jun 2026·Autodata converts inference into training data1
  • 26 Jun 2026·Plasticity loss blocks continual learning12
  • 03 Jul 2026·Continual learning determines AI power1
  • 08 Jul 2026·Fable writes single-kernel inference code1
  • 08 Jul 2026·Harness engineering proposed as RSI path1
  • 08 Jul 2026·Krier argues takeoff remains unlikely1
  • 08 Jul 2026·RSI feedback loops get taxonomy1
  • 10 Jul 2026·Anthropic sees 2.8x coding uplift1
  • 10 Jul 2026·Coding contest victory signals autoresearch progress1
  • 10 Jul 2026·Fable wins CIFAR-10 optimization challenge1
  • 10 Jul 2026·OpenAI internal inference grows 100x1
  • 14 Jul 2026·Economists model quiet AI takeoff1234
  • 14 Jul 2026·Epoch finds rising Codex productivity1
  • 14 Jul 2026·GPT-5.6 proves graph conjecture12345
  • 14 Jul 2026·Post-training may block Meta catch-up1
  • 17 Jul 2026·Recursive autoresearch shows limited gains123

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